in martial arts when it comes to a competition, in my case usually a fight looks like this: the first time you face your opponent you have to check his abilities. standing in front of him, you check his posture, his movement, his face expression and especially the eyes. you need to know what kind of fighting style he adopted: a more aggressive one, with fast, powerful movements which are usually less precise and energy wasting (but devastating when you get hit) or a concentrated, calculating guy who uses fast and very precise moves to hit you in weak spots, which does not need that much energy at all. this moves are usually not that hard in the first place but its hard to foresee and therefore prepare for them which can also be very critical. also, you have to take the risk and take one or two hits just to see whether you are able to take them and compete. in my opinion, there is no use to fight an opponent if you cant take even one hit. furthermore it is very important to notice his way of breathing, this will show you about his condition. in case your condition is worse, the fight shouldnt take long and you have to become more offensive in order to take him down before your condition gets down.
this is just a very small insight of things you get confronted with when you train for competition. as you can see, fighting is not that simple. it requires your full concentration and also a trained and resistent body. it gets more interesting even after the fight and especially when you lost, cause then you usually recall all the hits and the moments you made a mistake, analyze it, try to develop a counter-technique or some very special move the opponent may not be able to foresee and then… then you cant wait to meet this opponent again and use the knowledge to take him down… but sometimes unexpected difficulties occur, no matter how hard you try the opponent seems to foresee every move and is just beating you down… what usually helps then… is to go back to the roots. to the very basic techniques which are simple but effective and… proofed.
the financial crisis is a very strong opponent we are hardly able to face. even though every economist knows what would be necessary to fight this crisis in a way which would be actually most healthy for the economy and for the future development of the market, no politician will ever allow this to happen – and also a lot of managers up there have a strong interest in not letting this happen.
after the real estates and the financial industry, the crisis swept over to the next industry: cars, automobiles and therefore also their subsidiaries and supplying companies. this is not the end, it will continue on and on since everything is so strongly connected with each other…
what should happen? in economics it is called „to slim down“ or in my language: going back to the basics. the companies with the worst troubles are the huge companies like GM which do business in different fields, operate in many areas and developed into huge conglomerates which are difficult to control and where it is difficult to calculate their risk profiles. therefore, this companies should go back to their main business, concentrate on profitable areas and earn money with what they can. why this doesnt happen? because this would mean to close facilities, sending thousands of people into unemployment and of course cutting down the worth of business as well as earnings which will also mean less money for the management… only few managers are willing to accept this and no politician will ever let such a thing happen. reelection is very important, right?
but all the intervenience by the state will only create the next big bubble and therefore there will be a crisis after this. hard to say how this crisis will look like but it will come for sure… interesting thing: only few months ago, i was speculating on my old blog about what would happen if such a crisis would occur and the world demand for goods produced in china would decrease. china’s growth is based mainly on export but with a decreasing demand on the world market, they should face some serious trouble – and exactly this is happening now. just today i was reading an article about this. according to the financial times, chinas growth might go down to 6 or even 4%. right now, thousands of companies have to close their business, we will notice very soon what effects this will bring…
for everybody who is interested in economics, i guess the financial crisis is one the most interesting „events“ ever. it shows us all the connections and boundaries around the globe among companies, politics, monetary flows etc. and seeing all this happen makes it so interesting to learn and study about it.
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